Asp poll script

ELECTION 2004

NEWS ANALYSIS

He hopes his jobs theme hits a nerve with voters

By CRAIG GILBERT cgilbert@journalsentinel.com, Journal Sentinel

Thursday, February 12, 2004

Janesville -- With the Wisconsin primary five days away, John Edwards is in a race to connect with the state's voters.

He's running on an issue that hits home here -- jobs lost overseas.

"How 'bout a little fair trade in this country?" he said at a labor hall.

And he's appealing to local pride and ego.

"I want the people of Wisconsin to prove on Tuesday that you're as independent-minded as the rest of the country thinks you are," he said.

Translation: Don't vote for the guy everybody expects to win, John Kerry.

For the Edwards campaign, the question comes down to this: Is the door cracking open in Wisconsin or slamming shut?

Edwards says he sees opportunity.

The other Southerner in the race is gone (Gen. Wesley Clark).

The other populist in the race is gone (Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri).

Even the front-runner (Kerry) is gone -- on a two-day campaign break.

"I see myself as the underdog who's in serious competition and fighting for every vote," Edwards said in an interview during a fly- around that took him from Janesville to La Crosse and Green Bay.

"He's made a decision not to come (to Wisconsin) until Friday," he said of Kerry, "and I'm going to be here getting every vote I can, not only between now and Friday, but between now and the primary."

Mostly Edwards is banking on his ability to strike a chord with voters on the issue of jobs, especially the flight of jobs offshore.

"He's young. He's ready to go . . . I think he's real," said retired plumber Butch Helbing, a Democrat who heard Edwards speak in Janesville. "He wants to take care of this country first."

Trade differences

Wearing a suit and winter hiking boots, the 50-year-old North Carolina senator talked to crowds Wednesday about the morning newspaper headline in Milwaukee -- 500 jobs at Tower Automotive moving to Mexico.

"We need to outsource this administration," he said.

He ripped the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Kerry voted for. Edwards wasn't in the Senate at the time of its passage.

"There are obvious differences on trade," he said in response to a reporter's question about him and Kerry, the Massachusetts senator.

How much those differences come across to voters remains to be seen. Edwards won't attack Kerry directly, because he has advertised himself as a "positive" campaigner.

It's also true that their records aren't dramatically different. While Edwards opposed some trade measures supported by Kerry, both voted to make normal trade relations with China a permanent thing -- a move that was assailed by many unions and critics of unfettered trade.

In an interview, Edwards called complaints against the China measure "very legitimate" but said he voted for it because it was helpful to agricultural, banking and technology interests in North Carolina.

"If you look at my record in total, it's pretty clear what my position is on trade," said Edwards, who is airing ads in the state saying: "No one will do more than I will to keep American jobs right here in America."

A Journal Sentinel poll completed Saturday gave Kerry a 30-point lead over the field. That was before Kerry won Tennessee and Virginia but also before Clark dropped out, which ought to be helpful to Edwards.

Modeling Iowa

In some ways the model for what Edwards is trying to do here is Iowa. There the formula he developed -- populist themes, working- class roots, personal eloquence, upbeat tone -- struck a chord with his Upper Midwest audiences.

"It worked in Iowa," Edwards told a TV reporter in Green Bay, one of many local radio and TV interviews he shoe-horned between events. "I came out of nowhere to a very strong second-place finish."

But in Wisconsin, he has the opposite problem he had back then. In Iowa, Edwards was a bit lost in a crowded field but had time to generate momentum through personal campaigning. Now, the field of major names has winnowed to Kerry, Edwards and a flagging Howard Dean, but there's little time before voters go the polls Tuesday.

It's "go, go, go," said Edwards, who shuffled his schedule this week, scaling back a California fund-raising swing so he can spend a part of each day in Wisconsin.

He needs to do well here, Edwards said in the interview, but "I don't think doing well requires winning."

His campaign also is counting on a good performance in Sunday's presidential debate, likely the last chance of its kind for Kerry's rivals.

"I want that debate," Edwards said in a TV interview in Green Bay.

While the political world views his chances of stopping the Kerry juggernaut -- 12 wins in 14 states -- with great skepticism, Edwards got support from an odd corner Wednesday. In a series of interviews, Dean called Edwards a stronger candidate in the fall against George W. Bush than Kerry.

"He's a very wise man," Edwards said of the former Vermont governor with a smile.

"Anybody who looks at the empirical evidence of these primaries, it's obvious that I'm attracting a group of voters, independents and people who we'll have to attract to win the fall, which will make me a stronger candidate against Bush," he said.

Edwards has done better among independents than among Democrats in several states that have voted so far, while the reverse has often been true of Kerry.

That provides a sliver of hope when it comes to Wisconsin, with its open primary and high turnouts. In the state's last competitive Democratic presidential primary in 1992, exit polls showed that Democrats constituted only 53% of the voters, independents 40% and Republicans 7%.

In Tennessee and Virginia, 70% to 75% of those who turned out were Democrats, exit polls showed.

Broad electorate

Another way of making the point -- that Wisconsin's primary electorate is unusually broad -- is this: Between 1968 and that last contested race in 1992, turnout in the Democratic presidential primary ranged from 18% to 28% of the state's voting age citizens.

That's far higher than any state that has voted this year except New Hampshire (23%).

In Iowa it was 6%, in Arizona 6%, in New Mexico 8%, in Virginia 8%, in South Carolina 9%, in Missouri 13%. In Michigan, it was just 2%.

There's an argument to be made that Wisconsin offers Edwards an opening, if you believe an electorate less dominated by hard-core Democrats also will be less driven by the partisan desire to close ranks behind Kerry.

But those are nuances, and may not matter if the race doesn't get a lot closer.

"We're going to have an election in Wisconsin, not a coronation," Edwards told supporters Wednesday, echoing an anti-front-runner message also used by Dean.

"I'm not ceding anything," he told a reporter.

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ANALYSIS JOHN EDWARDS (D-N.C.)

AIRING: Milwaukee, Madison, La Crosse WEB CAST: www.johnedwards2004.com/ television-ads.asp PRODUCER: Axelrod and Associates TV AD: "American Jobs"

SCRIPT: Edwards: "It's easy for candidates to talk about manufacturing and jobs, but I've lived it and I have not forgotten it. My dad worked in textile mills to put food on our table and clothes on our backs. Today, the mills are gone. And so are the jobs. That's why I opposed NAFTA and why I'll end tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas. I'm John Edwards and I approve this message because no one will do more than I will to keep American jobs right here in America. That's something you can count on."

A -- Closeup shot of Edwards, earnestly talking directly to the viewer.

B -- Edwards on the left side of the screen; a black-and-white photo of a textile mill on the right.

C -- Edwards on the left side of the screen; an old black-and- white photo of a mother holding a child on the right side.

D -- Edwards on the left side of the screen; a black-and-white photo of a locked plant gate with a "closed" sign.

ANALYSIS/ACCURACY: Edwards' message here dovetails with his Wisconsin primary campaign theme, "the loss of manufacturing jobs," and personalizes it with his own family history. While it's true that Edwards has said he opposes NAFTA, he wasn't yet in office when the trade agreement was approved by Congress. His presidential platform includes offering a 10% tax credit to companies that keep jobs in America, but so far Edwards has only given a broad-brush explanation of how he'd stop tax breaks for firms that export jobs. The message is largely aimed at connecting with voters on an emotional level, personalizing and simplifying a complicated policy question and showing Edwards' commitment to the common person.

Steve Schultze of the Journal Sentinel staff

Journal Sentinel

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