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Is Linux Your Next OS?

Over the decades of desktop computing, we've witnessed one transition after another. We changed from 5.25-inch floppy disks to 3.5-inch floppy disks to no floppy disks. We moved from the CP/M machine to the IBM machine to the PC clone and from the dot matrix printer to laser and ink jet printers. We changed from the command line OS to the GUI.

The steadiest player has been Microsoft, as the provider of DOS and then the many versions of the Windows OS. But the buzz has long since abated. There's nothing jazzy about Microsoft anymore, and it even seems stodgy. Enter Linux, which is the center of attention right now. But what are its chances of supplanting Windows as the most common OS on the desktop?

With most transitions we've seen in technology, the flow has mostly been in the direction of the superior or drastically new product. Microsoft provides the superior desktop operating environmentat least for now. But superiority isn't the only cause of change. Economics also plays a role. Microsoft proved this by getting into the browser market with a second-rate product with an economic edge (it was free). And it matched the Adam Osborne adage of the late 1970s: "Adequacy is sufficient." Linux is in exactly this position at this moment. Microsoft should be concerned.

But as this I write this, any movement toward Linux is probably going to depend on five factors. Here they are, in reverse order of importance.

5. Windows compatibility. I think Windows compatibility is icing on the cake, as long as the other factors are met. The main use for Windows-based desktops today is the Office suite, and most Linux lash-ups now have adequate substitutes for Office. After all, Microsoft Office has been around for a long time, and it's been cloned to death, in case you haven't noticed.

4. Minimizing the cult factor. I think the Linux community might keep Linux off the desktopjust because of fanaticism. There's no bigger turnoff to most of humanity than to be associated with a bunch of scary lunatics or creepy nutballs. This problem hurt Amiga the most, and it continues to plague Apple. We're talking about computers, not lifestyles. These are operating systems, not political parties. Most Linux users are pretty mellow, but there are just enough of the angst-riddled and insecure Mac-type users among the community to turn off the general public and eventually kill the platform for good. This is dangerous.

3. Standards. The various flavors of Linux are not fully compatible, and we need an independent organization to make sure that there are standard ways of doing things, from file formats to directory organization. This should be an independent body similar to the IEEE or W3C.

2. Ease of use. Even the most adamant Linux promoter admits that Linux is too geeky for the average computer user. There is no reason for this. If the community actually made Linux easier to use than Windows, Linux would rock.

1. Adobe Photoshop. This is my most controversial assertion. But I claim that Adobe Photoshopnot Microsoft Officewill put Linux over the top. There is no substitute for full-blown Photoshop, and yes, I've looked at the supposed substitutes, such as The GIMP. Photoshop is in a league of its own. Pretenders cannot compete and never willuntil Photoshop runs out of genuine improvements in the same way Microsoft Word has. Only stagnation begets true imitation. Porting Photoshop into Linux would change the entire computer business overnight. This would affect both Microsoft and Apple, but mostly Microsoft. The likelihood of this happening is high, since John Warnock, chairman of Adobe, is still irked by Gates's surprise rollout of the TrueType font format years ago. He was angry when it happened, and porting all the Adobe products to Linux would be a good business decision and a poke in Microsoft's eye.

Unfortunately, the Linux community spends too much of its energy on things such as nomenclature (like the name GNU/Linux versus Linux). I sense that Linux is at a crossroads of becoming very important or becoming a footnote in desktop OS history. Right now, I'm banking on it becoming very importantand I mean on the desktop.

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