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The cellular industry celebrated its tenth birthday in 1994 and, with the coming of the new year, will enter a new phase of maturity. The past year was highlighted by continued market consolidation and the entry of communications giant AT&T into the picture. "Astounding growth" was the term used to describe the phenomenal continued addition of subscribers--only the computer industry can come close to cellular's continued growth success.

MOBILE PHONE NEWS Senior Editor Andrea Knotts Bona asked top industry executives to characterize the past year in cellular and to explain what is in store for the industry in 1994. Additionally, the executives had some fun with what is in and what is out in the New Year.

How would you characterize the past year in cellular?

Gordon Quick, GTE Telecommunication Services vice president and general manager

--My view is that cellular achieved a level of maturity...beyond the build-out phase. The infrastructure has been deployed, and network coverage is in place. Last year was the conclusion of the build-out phase, and now cellular carriers are moving into the phase of enhanced services...going beyond being able to be able to make and receive calls.

John Defeo, U S West president and CEO--In 1993, astounding cellular customer growth continued. The growth rate in customers even surprised a lot of experienced cellular people...it was even stronger growth than in 1992 despite the portable phone health scare and the uncertainties about PCS and other forms of competition.

Additionally, telecommunications was 'in the air' all year long. You could not pick up a U.S. Today or Newsweek and not read about some form of communications, and, although the publications advocated communications choices other than cellular, cellular continued to gain momentum.

During 1993, we had more subscribers using cellular for security reasons and experienced an increase in the female buyer...1993 was the year of the female buyer. Women purchasing cellular phones used to be less than 10 percent yet 1993's numbers will come in at more than 20 percent.

Jackie Dukes, Rural Cellular Association (RCA) board member--Exciting...the growth surpassed everything we hoped and dreamed for. I guess the industry has done better every month, it just keeps on going. It will be interesting next year to see what we can give back to those who have given so much and still continued to grow.

Andy Roscoe, EHCI president and CEO--Two trends emerged, both good. The growth in subscribers was record setting, even higher than anticipated, and revenue per-subscriber did not decline as much as expected.

Ujjal Kohli, PacTel Cellular vice president of marketing--Last year was a fantastic year for the cellular industry with dramatic growth in the marketplace. At PacTel, we saw a lot of progress in building out our networks, preparing for our digital transition and making our business more efficient.

Looking into a crystal ball, what significant cellular happenings are on the horizon?

GTE's Quick--Enhanced services will emerge in 1994. People bought into cellular for its mobility and now will find new ways to use the phone. Data will begin to make itself felt...assert itself. Carriers will spend a lot of time and effort on data. In my view, 1994 will be a time when carriers will re-invest in enhancing and upgrading infrastructure.

Another 1994 happening will be international roaming. We have dabbled with international roaming in Mexico and Canada and will expand roaming to South America in 1994.

U S West's Defeo--I think we will see additional convergence in cellular. We already have seen the AT&T and McCaw deal as well as the PacTel spin-off, diverging from its landline roots.

Cellular carriers will solidify business and service positions in scale and scope to compete with PCS 'entrants. Nextel Elves cellular carriers a taste of competition with the fulfillment its vision in 1993 to complete a nationwide ESMR network to provide ubiquitous mobile service.

We will see more cellular messaging--U S West kicked it off this year. Data will still be a promise in 1994 and digital messaging will be a reality.

RCA's Dukes--You are already seeing the cellular industry gear up to meet PCS competition. I do not expect the CDMA and TDMA issue to be resolved in 1994. Additionally, it is incumbent on us in 1994 as businessmen to look at our pricing so that we keep it market-based. We cannot take advantage of our subscribers...we have to be responsible.

EMCI's Roscoe--The most significant cellular happening on the horizon is that carriers will have to come to grips with the digital deployment issue. There is a lot of gnashing of teeth as to what carriers' competitors are doing in digital deployment...the pressures are mounting, and the carriers will have to face the issue.

PacTel's Kohli--1994 will bring PCS auctions, the introduction of CDPD, additional momentum for deploying CDMA, and, most significantly for us, the spin-off of PacTel as one of the largest independent wireless companies.