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Waiting For the Wireless Revolution




They're everywhere. Wireless data devices are our constant companions: They ride with us on commuter trains, go to work in the office, and amble about with us on country roads, city streets, and back alleyways. But the vast majority, particularly cell phones, are used exclusively for talking—not for delivering data.

That's a shame, because wireless devices hold the potential to work much harder for us, especially as we make the shift from a voice-centric world to one awash in mobile data. Change is slow, however, particularly in the U.S., where getting data the wireless way is expensive, complicated, and unreliable, partially because of the various incompatible networks and services. Some of the blame could even be placed on handsets, which we discuss later.

In 2001, only 3 percent of the 111 million mobile-phone subscribers in America used a mobile-data service, says Charles Golvin, senior analyst at Forrester Research. But by 2006, he predicts that two-thirds of the 180 million mobile-phone users will rely on data services. Most research suggests that greater acceptance of wireless data will occur as the phone networks roll out new data-based services, including access to online entertainment and m-commerce.

The transformation from using phones for basic communication to using them as all-purpose data devices that enrich our personal lives through constant communication is already evident in the use of Short Message Service (SMS), which lets cell phones send brief messages to one another via their keypads.

The Next Generation

To realize the vision of wireless technology, most people are banking on the implementation and adoption of 3G technology. Short for third generation, 3G is a catch-all phrase that describes the next step in mobile phones. By sending and receiving all data and voice traffic in packets, speeds of 100 Kbps and up can be attained. With 3G technology, portable bandwidth will rise to the level of wired broadband connections, and the effect will be truly liberating, enabling instant messaging, videoconferencing, gaming, and so on. Just as PCs increased in usefulness and value when connected to one another and the Internet, handsets will become a vital part of our lives.

From the start, however, getting wireless data has been expensive and difficult, and it's not particularly reliable. A series of technological advances should improve prospects, though. Second-generation (2G) handsets have replaced antediluvian analog cell phones and offer a modicum of basic, but slow, digital-information services. But the biggest push of all should come from a series of promising new handset technologies. Building on today's 2G technology, 2.5G phones will zip packeted data to and from phones at up to 144 Kbps. The big benefits lie in the always-on antennas (so long as you're within reach of a cell tower), enabling the instant flow of e-mail, data, and who knows what else.

The U.S. faces unique difficulty in the adoption of such a standard mobile-phone protocol because today's 2G phone network is so fragmented: It is made up of three digital standards that are supported by several powerful, independent-minded companies. To name just a few, Sprint and Verizon Wireless provision CDMA, AT&T sells TDMA, and Nextel owns a proprietary infrastructure, which is actually an offshoot of TDMA.

Making matters worse is a trio of data-only networks (CDPD, Mobitex, and Motient), which are very slow networks from the 1980s. Each standard requires its own infrastructure, custom applications, back office, and billions of dollars to build and maintain, which translate into higher costs, slower implementation of new technology, and less complete geographic coverage.

By contrast, in Scandinavia, for example, GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) is the only cellular standard. GSM is a 2G network that delivers Web access, news, and futuristic services, such as paying a parking meter, buying movie tickets, and banking. You can get GSM in the U.S. as well, from carriers such as Cingular Wireless.

Today's 2.5G technology (available via the CDMA2000 1X and GPRS networks (see "States of Confusion") is viewed as a rest stop on the highway to 3G. To put the possibilities in perspective, look at the offerings from Japan's highly successful NTT DoCoMo. Leapfrogging to 3G technology late last year, the company released FOMA (Freedom of Mobile multimedia Access), a phone service that began in major urban areas such as Tokyo and should be nationwide in less than two years. FOMA delivers everything from movie trailers and sports highlights to music video clips and news feeds; there's even a 3-minute cooking show for the time-stressed Japanese.

The first FOMA phones showcase the network's potential. The 4-ounce NEC N2002 handset looks like any other small phone, but it can receive data at 384 Kbps and transmit at 64 Kbps. The larger and slightly heavier Panasonic P2101V is as pretty as a picture. With a 2.5-inch color screen and a 110,000-pixel camera, it's a data terminal that goes everywhere you do. And it's just as good at providing remote face time as for playing a game with someone on the other side of the country.

In the end, content is key, and that comes from the providers. And current users are complaining that the providers are the problem. A recent survey by J.D. Power and Associates found that 30 percent of subscribers change providers every year, and of the 15,000 mobile users surveyed, almost 60 percent reported problems with their wireless provider.

It's no wonder the wireless arena is littered with the carcasses of failed companies. In addition to dozens of software and service companies, Globalstar and Iridium Satellite have flirted with bankruptcy. And in a Phoenix-like move, Ricochet Networks is being tested in Denver after a prolonged shutdown.

Will It Play in Peoria?

Though we might someday have a device that can do everything (and perhaps even have a provider that meets all our needs), choosing a device won't be easy—especially until a single cellular standard is in place. Right now you might fall in love with the style and features of the Handspring Treo 180, only to find that it works on the GSM network but that your area is served by a different one. Likewise, a Novatel CDPD card may fit your budget, but you may frequently travel outside CDPD's footprint.

This network never-never land leaves many users carrying two or more devices to cover the territory. We've all seen them: the people who have belts filled with phones, pagers, and handhelds, looking like outlaws ready for a wireless shoot-out.

Forthcoming multipurpose superphones might let power users cut down to a single device. First up will be the GSM-based BlackBerry RIM 5800 series, which integrates voice with data. Unfortunately, it wasn't ready in time for this story. Later this year Audiovox, LG, and others will release Pocket PC-based PDA phones, similar to today's Palm OS-based phones (see "Intel + Microsoft = Stinger").

To help cut down on device confusion, we rated wireless data devices currently available for three categories of users: enterprise, mobile professionals, and consumers. This will help you determine which unit is best for your needs.

Enterprise. These customers need secure, remote access virtually anywhere for corporate data and applications. With users' needs ranging from accessing VPNs and getting customer information to checking order status and e-mail, relatively large devices with built-in keyboards are perfect for hit-and-run computing. Prime examples are the BlackBerry RIM 957 and Palm i705.

Mobile professionals. People in this category live on the road and need to stay in touch with the office. Notebooks and handhelds are the tools of choice, with a mix of Web and Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) sites. Access can be accomplished via a notebook and a PC Card, or a PDA with a snap-on sled or sleeve, or by linking a phone to a laptop.

Consumers. E-mail, online chat, instant messaging, and data services could be the 21st century glue that holds the consumer family together. And the smart phone is the device to do it. Ease of use and price are the main issues rather than the depth and breadth of data delivery.

As attractive as the next generation of devices might be, wireless data is a double-edged sword. Yes, you can download Radiohead songs on the treadmill or send instant messages when you're caught in traffic, but it can be addictive. In fact, the BlackBerry's bottomless pit of data is so enticing that people have coined the term crackberry. Data withdrawal is visible in those stuck on a long flight; they're the ones who need a data fix and keep glancing at the handheld in hopes that it has magically connected. Increasingly, you'll find it next to impossible to tune those people out. If the phone is the connection to the office, then you're at work wherever you are. Burnout from a 24/7 mentality is often the result.

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